Bell and Blaney, Dead Even at Phoenix

Ryan Blaney has won the last 2 Cup races at Phoenix, and he goes back on Sunday as the betting favorite to make it 3. Only 2 drivers in history have won 3 Cup races in a row at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson.

Blaney's case is the whole stretch since the current car arrived in 2022. Phoenix has run 9 Cup races in that time, and he has finished in the top 5 in 8 of them. The one miss was an engine failure in March 2025. He averages a 5.2 finish across the 9, and only Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin also average better than 10th.

He does it at one of the hardest places in Cup to pass. From 2022 through 2025, only 5 Cup tracks saw less passing than Phoenix, and in March and November 2024 Blaney started 16th and 17th and finished 5th and 2nd.

Christopher Bell's case is the last 2 years. He has finished 1st, 5th, 1st, 11th and 2nd in the last 5 Phoenix races. His 4.0 average over those races is the best of anyone entered, and he led 474 laps in them, more than anyone else in the field.

Larson has the next best average over those 5 races, 5.4, and Blaney is at 7.4 because of the engine failure. Bell's average for the whole stretch since 2022 is 10.9, dragged down by his first 4 Phoenix races in this car: 26th, 10th, 6th and 36th.

Our sim can't split them. Both project to finish 5th. Each wins 17% of our 10,000 runs. Bell finishes in the top 10 a little more often, 73% of the time to Blaney's 71%, and his average finish across the runs is a touch better, which is why he heads our Cup projections. DraftKings Sportsbook leans Blaney, at +370 to win, with Bell at +450.

Sunday's Cup Projections

Larson keeps finishing 3rd at Phoenix

Larson leads the Chase by 49 points over Hamlin with 4 races left: Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead. Bell is 51 back, Chase Briscoe 65 and Blaney 85. Larson built that lead with a 2.8 average finish across the first 6 Chase races.

Larson has been steady at Phoenix without dominating it. His last 4 finishes at Phoenix are 4th, 3rd, 3rd and 3rd, and last November that 3rd was enough to win him the championship. He has led 13 laps in the last 5 Phoenix races, and he has not won one in the current car.

For a bettor, that reads like a top 5 record more than a win record. DraftKings has him at even money to finish in the top 5, which is a 50% chance. Our sim gives him 42%.

Logano at Phoenix: 1st, 13th, 4th, 31st

Joey Logano has won 4 Cup races at Phoenix, the most of anyone entered, and his last 4 trips show how hard he is to read. He won in November 2024 and took the championship with it. The next March he finished 13th. Last November, the day Blaney won, he was 4th. This March he started on the pole, led 73 laps and crashed out in 31st.

He usually has the speed. He started on the front row in 3 of those 4 races and led laps in 3 of them, and the finishes still went everywhere. Our sim has him projecting to finish 6th, right behind Bell and Blaney.

Only Blaney has been faster at Phoenix than Byron

If you are looking past the favorites, start with William Byron. Take the caution laps out and compare each car's speed in every Phoenix race since 2022, and Byron has been the 2nd fastest car on average. Only Blaney has been quicker. Bell is 3rd.

Byron qualifies up front, too. He has started 9th or better in all 9 Phoenix races with the current car, which matters at a track where none of the last 18 winners started deeper than 13th. Anyone setting a top 10 bet or a fantasy lineup has good reason to wait for Saturday's qualifying.

Byron's finishes have not caught up to his speed. He won the March 2023 race, but he averages a 10.7 finish at Phoenix in this car, and last November he started 2nd, led 52 laps and finished 33rd. Our sim has him projecting to finish 10th. DraftKings has him at +1300 to win, a long price for the 2nd fastest car at Phoenix.

DraftKings likes the hot hands at Phoenix

Briscoe has won the last 2 Cup races, and Austin Cindric has climbed from the 15th seed to 8th in the Chase. DraftKings has both as favorites to finish in the top 10 on Sunday: Briscoe at -250 and Cindric at -140.

DraftKings' prices work out to about a 71% chance of a top 10 for Briscoe and about 58% for Cindric. Our sim is discounting both more than the book is, at 51% for Briscoe and 43% for Cindric.

Phoenix is why. Briscoe won the first Phoenix race in the current car, in March 2022, but his last 4 finishes at the track are 29th, 35th, 18th and 37th. Cindric has never finished in the top 10 at Phoenix in 9 Cup starts, and he was 34th in each of the last 2. The books are pricing the last month, and the Phoenix records are a reason to be careful with those lines.

For anyone who likes Bell but not his price to win, the top 3 fits his season. He has finished 2nd 8 times, the most in Cup, and won once. DraftKings has him at +140 to finish in the top 3.

Buescher and McDowell finish better at Phoenix than they project

Chris Buescher has finished in the top 10 in 5 of the 9 Phoenix races with the current car, usually after starting in the middle of the pack. Our sim has him projecting to finish 16th, close to his 15.4 average finish this season. Michael McDowell finished 8th and 9th in the last 2 Phoenix races, and our sim has him projecting to finish 24th.

Both are cheap in fantasy, $7,500 for Buescher and $6,100 for McDowell on DraftKings, which pays a point for every spot a driver finishes ahead of where he started.

Corey Heim has no Phoenix Cup record yet. Sunday is his first Cup start at Phoenix, but he won the Truck race at Phoenix last fall, and he has won 2 of his 11 Cup starts this year, at San Diego and Indianapolis.

Wallace has never finished top 5 at Phoenix

Bubba Wallace has made 17 Cup starts at Phoenix without a top 5. His best finish at the track is 6th, this March, after starting 28th. Carson Hocevar has 11 top 10s this season and none at Phoenix in 6 starts. Zane Smith averages a 27.3 finish at Phoenix in 6 starts, against 22.4 this season. Our sim has all 3 projecting to finish 14th or worse.

Friday's Truck Projections

The weekend starts Friday night with the Truck Series. Layne Riggs has won 7 races this season, the most in the series, including last week at Charlotte. Kaden Honeycutt has won 3, but his 8.1 average finish is the best of anyone who has run every race, and he leads Riggs by 17 points with 4 races to go.

Our sim makes Riggs the favorite at Phoenix. He wins 26% of our runs, the most in the field, even though he has never won a Truck race at the track. Chandler Smith has the best Phoenix average of anyone entered, 3.6 in 5 starts, with a win in November 2021. Honeycutt has finished better at Phoenix every year he has raced at the track: 9th, 8th, 7th, then 3rd last fall.

The Zero Carbon Bioethanol 150 Powered by POET goes green Friday, Oct 16 at 7:30 pm ET on FS2. Truck Series practice runs Friday, Oct 16 at 3:30 pm ET, with qualifying right after it.

Saturday's O'Reilly Projections

The O'Reilly Series Chase is even closer. Sheldon Creed, Jesse Love and Corey Day have won all 5 Chase races between them and are separated by 7 points, with Creed on top. Justin Allgaier is 4th, 15 back, with 4 races to go.

Allgaier has the best chance in our sim, a win in 20% of runs, and he won at Phoenix in March. Love has the best Phoenix average of anyone entered since 2022, 4.0 in 5 starts, and he won the Phoenix race last November. Day has won the last 2 O'Reilly races, and our sim has him projecting to finish 9th.

The Timberland PRO 200 goes green Saturday, Oct 17 at 7:30 pm ET on The CW. O'Reilly Series practice runs Saturday, Oct 17 at 2:00 pm ET, with qualifying right after it.

How to watch Sunday

The Freeway Insurance 500 goes green Sunday, Oct 18 at 3:00 pm ET on USA Network. Cup practice runs Saturday, Oct 17 at 4:30 pm ET, with qualifying right after it.

The Freeway Insurance 500 is the 7th of the 10 Chase races and the first Cup race at Phoenix in October since 2001. Every projection above was locked Thursday morning, before practice and qualifying, and the projections page runs each race another 10,000 times once its qualifying is done.