Race recaps, projections, and how our calls actually did, for NASCAR Cup, O'Reilly, and Trucks.
NASCAR rebuilt the rules package for this one race, there is no practice to test it, and the last three Chase spots get decided at the track that already ruins everybody's plans.
Median finish, laps led, projected DraftKings points, ceiling, value, and win odds for the full field in both New Hampshire races, from 10,000 race simulations.
Why qualifying decides this race now, the dominator problem, Hamlin's 798 laps led, and every Loudon number worth knowing before Sunday.
Josh Berry owns the best New Hampshire record of anyone entered and one top five finish all season. What 170 drivers in the same spot since 2005 say about Sunday, and how the rest of our table answers it.
Median finish, laps led, projected DraftKings points, ceiling, value, and win odds for the full field in both Richmond races, from 10,000 race simulations.
The pole drought, the tire story, Hamlin's 2,367 laps led, and what actually wins on NASCAR's 0.75-mile D-oval. Forty races of data since 2005.
Richmond honors Kyle Busch this weekend, Goodyear brings a tire built to wear out, and the market is paying Austin Dillon for a story. What forty races of data say about Saturday night.
Ryan Blaney has never finished worse than fourth at Iowa. The mustache's case, Hamlin's paradox, the Toyota question, and full projections for both races.
Seventeen starts and four third-place finishes at the only crown jewel he has never won, and the numbers that say Sunday is different. Plus a two-race chart crime from the Track DNA file, the new right-side tire nobody has data on, and Layne Riggs back at the track where he led 160 of 200 laps.
Eight straight top 10s and the best flat-track numbers in the field, a 450-lap race where laps led decide the scoring, and the track-shape reason the sim is cool on Reddick. Plus Corey Heim's 303 laps led in the Truck race.
Predicting Atlanta comes down to two numbers
Cup racing returns to Chicagoland after seven years. Our model says Larson's 42-race winless streak ends Sunday, plus the buy-low on Byron and the fade on Gibbs.
Corey Heim, the reigning Truck champion running a part-time Cup schedule before he goes full-time next year, ran down points leader Tyler Reddick in the final two laps. The drivers everybody loved, Shane van Gisbergen included, were already in the garage after a nine-car wreck. We had van Gisbergen ranked first. He finished 38th.
