Larson and Bell Have Never Won at Talladega

A lot of fans spent the week worrying about the TV ratings for Phoenix. We understand the worry, but the race itself left the Chase wide open. A tire failure late in the race cut Kyle Larson's lead over Christopher Bell from 49 points to 5, and 7 drivers are now within 56 points with 3 races left. Next is Talladega, and we can't remember being this excited for a race there.

The cars should race better, too. NASCAR cut the rear spoiler for Daytona in August, which makes the cars harder to drive and easier to pass in, and it trims the spoiler again for Sunday. Denny Hamlin said on Rubbin' Is Racing this week that the August race was much better, and we thought so from the grandstand. The only catch is that nobody gets to practice with the smaller spoiler before it counts.

The 2 drivers at the top of the standings have never won a Cup race at Talladega. Larson is 0 for 23 at the track, Bell is 0 for 13, and neither has won at Daytona either. April went badly for both. Bell led the most laps and crashed on the last lap, finishing 17th. Larson finished 40th.

It isn't one bad afternoon. Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta are the drafting tracks, where the cars run in tight packs because a line of cars moves faster than a car running alone. Over the last 2 seasons they were Larson's worst kind of track, and Bell's. Both averaged about a 20th place finish at them. Everywhere else, Larson averaged about 13th and Bell about 11th.

Hamlin is the most striking case. He has the best average finish in Cup this season, and no driver entered Sunday has more career top 5s at Daytona and Talladega. None of them came in the last 2 seasons, a stretch in which he had 30 top 5s everywhere else. He is 31 points back, and he said this week that his only plan is to run up front: "If we crash, we crash."

Chase Briscoe, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano fit the same pattern. For all 6 of them, the drafting tracks were their worst kind of track over the last 2 seasons. That holds even for Briscoe, who won this race last October.

Sunday's Cup Projections

The one contender built for Sunday

Tyler Reddick is the exception, and the drafting tracks have been his best. He won the Daytona 500 in February and Atlanta a week later. He finished in the top 10 in 7 of the last 11 races at the 3 tracks and never finished worse than 29th in any of them. He won Phoenix on Sunday, too.

He also closes. Talladega went to overtime in 3 of its 9 Cup races since 2022, and Reddick won 6 overtime races in that time, tied with William Byron for the most.

What he needs is a day when the leaders get caught in the crash and he doesn't. Our sim is more cautious about him and has him projecting to finish 18th. DraftKings is closer to his record and has him at even money to finish in the top 10.

Keselowski's last Talladega in the No. 6

Brad Keselowski won at Talladega 6 times, the most of anyone entered. Nobody else in the field has more than 3. In September, RFK Racing, the team he co-owns, announced that he will leave after the season, so Sunday is his last Talladega in the No. 6. His last win at the track was in April 2021. He finished 2nd there 3 times since then, and 31st in April.

500 miles, and only 188 laps to lead

Talladega is the longest oval in NASCAR, 2.66 miles a lap, so Sunday's 500 miles take only 188 laps. In fantasy that changes what leading is worth, because DraftKings pays by the lap. A driver who leads half of Sunday's race earns about 24 points for it. Lead half of a 500 lap race at Bristol and it's about 63. Among the ovals, only 4 other big tracks, Pocono, Indianapolis, Daytona and Michigan, make leading a smaller part of the fantasy score.

Leading at Talladega doesn't win the race either. In the 9 Talladega races since the current car arrived in 2022, the driver who led the most laps never won. Bell was the latest, in April.

The winners come from anywhere. The last 12 Talladega races went to 12 different drivers, and 7 of the last 9 winners started 8th or worse, including Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who won from 32nd in October 2024. Carson Hocevar won in April for his first career Cup win. As of Friday morning, DraftKings had 22 drivers at 40 to 1 or shorter, more than half the field.

The drivers still there at the end

Watch enough of these races and the same names keep turning up at the finish. Over the last 8 races at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta, Stenhouse ran around 27th on average and finished around 19th. Daniel Suarez, Cole Custer and Hocevar have the same knack, finishing 6 or 7 spots better than they run.

At Talladega you can see it in the last 10 laps. In the current car, Hocevar picked up 6 spots a race over that stretch. Larson lost almost 8.

The betting market hasn't caught on. Stenhouse finished in the top 10 in 5 of the last 11 drafting races, and DraftKings will pay $250 on a $100 bet that he does it again. Logano finished in the top 10 in 2 of those 11, and DraftKings prices him as one of the 2 safest top 10 bets on the board.

The fantasy trap is the driver starting up front

In DraftKings fantasy, a driver earns a point for every spot he gains from where he starts and loses one for every spot he drops. That makes the front of the grid dangerous at Talladega. Since 2022, 32% of the drivers who started in the top 10 at Talladega finished 30th or worse, against 13% at tracks other than Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta. Larson's April race, from 2nd on the grid to 40th at the finish, cost a lineup 38 points before anything else counted. Wait for Saturday's qualifying, and look hardest at good drivers starting deep, like Todd Gilliland. He costs $6,900 and has the best Talladega average finish of anyone entered with 5 or more starts.

Blaney can score at Talladega without finishing there

Blaney's best weapon on Sunday may be the stages. NASCAR splits the race into 3 parts, and whoever is in the top 10 when each of the first 2 parts ends collects bonus points, 10 for the driver in front. Nobody has been better at that in the draft. Blaney won 10 stages at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta since 2022, 3 more than anyone else. Those points are banked even when the end of the race goes wrong, and for Blaney at Talladega it usually has. His last 5 finishes there were 20th, 39th, 37th, 23rd and 37th. He is 40 points back.

Friday's Truck Projections

The Truck Series title is down to 2 drivers. Kaden Honeycutt won at Phoenix and leads Layne Riggs by 39 points with 3 races left, and neither has won at Talladega. Giovanni Ruggiero won this race last year in his only start at the track. Corey Heim finished 2nd that day, and our sim makes Heim the slight favorite this time, just ahead of Ruggiero.

The Love's RV Stop 225 goes green Friday, Oct 23 at 4:00 pm ET on FS1. Truck Series qualifying runs Friday, Oct 23 at 12:30 pm ET.

Saturday's O'Reilly Projections

Austin Hill won 11 O'Reilly races at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta since 2022, and nobody else in the series won more than 2. The latest of those 11 was the Daytona opener in February, and he also won on the San Diego street course in June. He is our sim's favorite on Saturday, and he is also racing in Sunday's Cup race. Jesse Love won at Phoenix and leads the O'Reilly Chase by 36 points over Justin Allgaier. Corey Day is 39 back, and he won at Talladega in April.

The Progress Group 250 goes green Saturday, Oct 24 at 3:30 pm ET on The CW. O'Reilly Series qualifying runs Saturday, Oct 24 at 11:00 am ET.

How to watch Sunday

The YellaWood 500 goes green Sunday, Oct 25 at 2:00 pm ET on NBC. Cup qualifying runs Saturday, Oct 24 at 1:00 pm ET.

The YellaWood 500 is the 8th of the 10 Chase races. We locked every projection above on Thursday afternoon. Once each race's qualifying is in, the projections page runs it 10,000 more times with the real starting grid.